Johannesburg: Africa’s need for refined products is set to surge, driven by demographic and economic forces.
According to African Press Organization, the State of African Energy, Africa’s refined product demand is projected to climb from approximately 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to over 6 million bbl/d by 2050.
While many advanced economies are moving to reduce their dependence on oil and gas, Africa is next in line to benefit from its own – and has every right to do so, just as the developed nations of the world already have. This situation highlights both the opportunities for energy security and the challenges that lie ahead regarding infrastructure development.
While many other regions around the world are expected to follow the same path toward green alternatives as Europe and North America in the coming years, Africa’s oil demand shows no sign of waning anytime soon. However, Africa’s trajectory is markedly different: Per capita consumption remains the lowest globally, particularly in
sub-Saharan African nations, leaving substantial room for expansion as populations and GDPs rise.
Forecasts suggest that the continent’s population could swell by more than 930 million people, reaching nearly 2.4 billion by 2050. This would account for 25% of the world’s population and 63% of global population growth between now and then.
Economic projections are equally substantial, with Africa’s 2050 GDP expected to nearly triple from what it is now to around USD7.8 trillion after growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8-3.9% in the coming decades. Smaller, less developed markets will lead this charge, amplifying demand for energy-intensive activities.
Currently, despite representing 18% of the global population, Africa consumes less than 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes just 3% to global GDP. This disparity indicates untapped potential.
As the 2026 Outlook Report emphasizes, Africa’s oil demand will continue growing to 2050 and beyond, fueled by population growth, industrial
ization, and urbanization. Furthermore, while sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita oil demand is the world’s lowest, there is a dire need for an increased supply of oil and gas products, positioning the region as an engine for long-term growth.
Africa is poised to become the primary driver of worldwide gasoline demand growth over the long term, offsetting declines in China and member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our report projects that Africa’s gasoline consumption will exceed 2.2 million bbl/d by 2050, with Nigeria and emerging markets at the forefront.
Nigeria already dominates continental gasoline demand, yet its per capita usage is still comparatively low. In established markets like Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa, demand is expected to stagnate in the early 2040s due to overall improving fuel economy, the rise of compressed natural gas (CNG)/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vehicles in Egypt and Algeria, and electric vehicle (EV) adoption in South
Africa.
Diesel/gasoil will see even more pronounced growth, with consumption expected to increase by about 880,000 bbl/d by 2050, nearly 50% from current levels, and growing to just under 2.7 million bbl/d. This positions Africa as the top growth region for the product, surpassing Latin America.
Jet fuel and kerosene demand is on the verge of a strong rebound in Africa with expectations that it will surpass its pre-COVID levels in 2025. Inter- and intra-regional air travel is regaining momentum, with consumption projected to top 280,000 bbl/d this year and increase 65% by 2050, reaching a rate of 465,000 bbl/d.
Amid rising demand for refined products, LPG as a cooking fuel is the standout opportunity for cleaner energy. Our 2026 Outlook Report identifies LPG as the most abundant and practical alternative to traditional biomass and coal for African households as it offers health and environmental benefits as well as a means of reducing emissions.
Despite these advantages, LPG use remains low at under 20 mi
llion tonnes per year. Our report, based on S and P Global Commodity Insights data as of June 2025, predicts only modest growth, with Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and others contributing to a slight rise as we head toward 2050.
The modest projections in our report can be attributed to persistent policy and infrastructure hurdles. Regulatory frameworks, consumer financing plans, and distribution networks in rural and low-income areas would all need development. Without targeted investments, demand will remain suppressed.