Abuja: Africa contributes less than 5% of the world's energy-related emissions while housing 19% of the global population.
According to African Press Organization, the continent's population is projected to rise to 28% of the global total by 2060, with its energy-related emissions expected to remain a modest 9%. This positions Africa uniquely in the global decarbonization efforts, despite calls from Western advocates to rapidly phase out fossil fuels universally.
The African Energy Chambers' State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report highlights the continent's minimal responsibility for climate change. However, infrastructure limitations, such as a lack of grid capacity and outdated transmission lines, present challenges for large-scale decarbonization. Energy deficits and unreliable electricity access mean that expanding energy access must occur alongside decarbonization efforts. Significant investments in infrastructure upgrades are necessary for Africa to realize its potential as a major green fuel supplier.
The transition to a low-carbon economy requires substantial upfront investment, which is difficult for many African countries due to perceived political and financial risks. Inconsistent policies and slow permitting processes create uncertainty for investors, despite ambitious decarbonization targets set by governments. The continent's reliance on fossil fuel exports requires a balance between economic stability and the clean energy transition. Africa's evolving energy profile, including hydrogen and critical minerals, could play a crucial role in global climate outcomes.
Africa is poised to become a significant player in the green hydrogen market. By 2035, the continent could produce over 9 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually, positioning itself as a hydrogen exporter. Countries like Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt, and Morocco are leading in green hydrogen projects. The African Green Hydrogen Alliance, with up to 11 members, anticipates that green hydrogen exports will reach 40 megatons by 2050. Namibia's Hyphen green hydrogen project and South Africa's Hydrogen Valley are notable initiatives in this space.
In the minerals sector, Africa is home to rich deposits of critical minerals such as cobalt, copper, and lithium. The 2026 Outlook Report predicts a fivefold increase in demand for these minerals by 2035. Mineral-rich African nations have the opportunity to become strategic players in the global supply chain. However, securing sustained investment in infrastructure, governance, and skills development is essential for success. The Democratic Republic of the Congo leads in cobalt production, while Zimbabwe is a key player in lithium production.
To unlock Africa's downstream potential, stable regulatory frameworks are crucial. Governments must prioritize regulatory clarity and streamline permitting processes to attract investment. Regional cooperation and shared clean-energy infrastructure are also vital. Building local technical capacity and enabling technology transfer will help overcome the scarcity of skilled labor and limited access to advanced processing technologies. African leaders can seize this moment to move up the value chain into processing and refining, unlocking significant economic value.